With Hurricane Ike hitting Cuba on Monday, and with the
memory of Hanna and Gustav still fresh, 2008 is shaping up to be a very active
hurricane season. We often hear the question—every year for the last several
years, it seems—whether tropical storms and hurricanes are increasing, and if
so, whether global warming is the cause.
The answer to the first part of the question, according to
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is a qualified yes. NOAA
scientists describe 20- to 30-year cycles of increased activity as well as
less-than-usual hurricane activity, caused by naturally occurring tropical
climate patterns near the equator. We are in the middle of one of the
high-activity cycles now, which NOAA expects to last for another decade or so.
A 2005 article in the
administration’s online magazine says “NOAA research shows that the
tropical multi-decadal signal is causing the increased Atlantic hurricane
activity since 1995, and is not related to greenhouse warming.” A note to the
same article, however, adds “There is a robust, on-going
discussion on hurricanes and climate change within NOAA and the scientific
community.” (See the full article here.)
People
other than atmospheric scientists, though, tend to base their views on what’s
taken place in their recent experience, and many seem sure that things are
permanently worse. What have you found the reaction to be to extreme weather
patterns when they occur in your area? (To hurricanes if you’re in an area that
gets them, or to heavy flooding or an especially rainy season?) Do a majority of
people attribute apparent changes in the weather to climate change, or do they
tend to see them as part of a larger, cyclical pattern? And if part of your job
involves explaining weather trends to the public—either in an official capacity,
or just because you get asked since “stormwater” is part of your title—what’s
your take on the weather?